Peace and security

The current rivalry between NATO and Russia, most concretely expressed in the current Russo-Ukraine War, may need to be stabilized in part by a continental-wide, post-war conventional arms control (CAC) agreement. Whilst the duration and eventual outcome of the current war is of course far from predictable, such a future CAC agreement should improve diplomatic relations, reduce tensions, arms races, and the likelihood of conflict – as such agreements have done throughout Europe in the past 100 years.

On 5 November 2024, INTERPOL elected Valdecy Urquiza of Brazil as its new Secretary General. Urquiza steps into a critical role, steering an organization that’s thrived amid global tensions but now faces fresh challenges from renewed power rivalries and complex war crime issues. As the first SG from the Global South, he must navigate INTERPOL’s commitment to neutrality in an increasingly polarized world.

BRICS’ expansion with Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE has heightened China’s influence, sparking tensions among members like Brazil and India wary of an anti-Western shift. This internal divide casts doubt on BRICS’ potential as an alternative global governance platform.

African nations have struggled for stability and growth amid political turmoil. While Regional Economic Communities (RECs) were designed to foster integration and security, challenges like limited funding persist. With Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger exiting ECOWAS over foreign influence concerns, the future of African alliances faces new uncertainty.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stresses the need for peace on Ukraine's terms, warning against rushed deals lacking robust security guarantees. Without such measures, Ukraine risks renewed Russian aggression, hindering reconstruction, stability, and European security, while strong international backing could ensure Ukraine's resilience and long-term deterrence.