Peace and security

Trump’s rushed-deal diplomacy enables Russian aggression, exposing its limits at Ukraine’s expense and highlighting Europe’s urgent need for credible deterrence and leadership to ensure continental security.

The potential normalization of Russia during a Trump presidency could undermine global security and U.S. strategic interests. This approach risks ignoring Russia’s history of aggression and its strengthening ties with adversarial nations like China, Iran, and North Korea. Sustained U.S. military support for Ukraine is vital for countering Russian threats, fostering defense innovation, and reinforcing American readiness. Prioritizing transatlantic cooperation and Ukraine’s defense capabilities is crucial for ensuring long-term stability.

The current rivalry between NATO and Russia, most concretely expressed in the current Russo-Ukraine War, may need to be stabilized in part by a continental-wide, post-war conventional arms control (CAC) agreement. Whilst the duration and eventual outcome of the current war is of course far from predictable, such a future CAC agreement should improve diplomatic relations, reduce tensions, arms races, and the likelihood of conflict – as such agreements have done throughout Europe in the past 100 years.

On 5 November 2024, INTERPOL elected Valdecy Urquiza of Brazil as its new Secretary General. Urquiza steps into a critical role, steering an organization that’s thrived amid global tensions but now faces fresh challenges from renewed power rivalries and complex war crime issues. As the first SG from the Global South, he must navigate INTERPOL’s commitment to neutrality in an increasingly polarized world.

BRICS’ expansion with Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE has heightened China’s influence, sparking tensions among members like Brazil and India wary of an anti-Western shift. This internal divide casts doubt on BRICS’ potential as an alternative global governance platform.

African nations have struggled for stability and growth amid political turmoil. While Regional Economic Communities (RECs) were designed to foster integration and security, challenges like limited funding persist. With Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger exiting ECOWAS over foreign influence concerns, the future of African alliances faces new uncertainty.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stresses the need for peace on Ukraine's terms, warning against rushed deals lacking robust security guarantees. Without such measures, Ukraine risks renewed Russian aggression, hindering reconstruction, stability, and European security, while strong international backing could ensure Ukraine's resilience and long-term deterrence.

Coups in West Africa, particularly in Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso, exacerbate gender inequalities, increasing women’s vulnerability to violence and instability. This policy brief explores these impacts, highlighting the need for targeted international responses and actionable measures to protect women and girls during and after political upheavals.

The Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland (June 15–16) seeks global support for the Ukrainian Peace Formula addressing food security, nuclear safety, and POW release. Challenges include declining participation, geopolitical tensions, and threats to Ukraine’s sovereignty in final agreements. Upholding international law and justice remains crucial for sustainable peace.

Ukraine's "Peace Formula," developed by President Zelenskyy, outlines Ukraine's vision for a fair, enduring peace amid the ongoing war with Russia. It has evolved from a 5-point to a 10-point plan and seeks international support, aiming to reform global governance and address military aggression.